How Social Discovery and Generative AI Are Shaping the Future of Search From My Perspective
Our understanding of the internet usage patterns of different generations heavily influences our opinions about social discovery, generative AI, and the future of search. High-speed internet connection was inaccessible to most Indians until recently. Nevertheless, our generational baseline follows the US definition, which considers the availability of high-speed internet as a defining factor for new generations. Defining India’s generations as per United States’ generational timeline is fundamentally flawed. In the late 1990s, I had a dial-up internet connection at home while my friends overseas had already switched to DSL. The distinctive creak and croak sound of the modem connecting to the internet via phone line was an experience in and of itself. This experience of having limited access to the Internet has helped me understand the digital divide and how it shapes the characteristics of a generation. Despite being a millennial by definition, I and my peers in India were closer to Generation X of the west when it came to our accessibility to the internet during that time.
Today, India is one of the world’s fastest-growing Internet markets, with hundreds of millions of active Internet users. This growth of internet accessibility is exceptional, given that the Indian government entity VSNL (Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited) launched the Internet in India less than 30 years ago, in 1995.
India’s broadband infrastructure expanded rapidly beginning in 2005. With 658 million users as of January 2022, India now has the second-highest number of internet users worldwide, accounting for 47% of the country’s entire population. As of January 2022, the United States had 307.2 million internet users, approximately 92 percent of the total population. As Internet penetration in the United States approaches saturation, it is understandable that the behavior of Indian “digital natives” will have a significant impact on the future of search.
“Digital Natives” refers to the demographic cohort who have had access to high-speed internet since their infancy. There are also known as Gen Z. In the United States, “Digital Natives,” were born between the mid-to-late 1990s and the early 2010s. In India, Reliance Jio’s affordable data made the internet dreams a reality beginning in September 2016. TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India) reports that before the launch of Jio, each Indian subscriber used to consume only 154 MB of data per month. Now, data consumption per subscriber has skyrocketed to a staggering 15.8 GB per month, an increase of more than 100 times. In my opinion, the “digital native” generation in India is still emerging and began to emerge around 2016 when high-speed internet became cheaper and easily available.
The adoption pattern of new tech innovations such as generative AI supports the premise that India’s digital native generation is younger than that of the United States. ChatGPT is a hot topic in American media, but it is just now making its way to India. When viewed through the framework of E.M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) theory, the adoption of Generative AI in the United States can be considered as having reached its “early majority” stage, while India is still in the “early adopter” phase of accepting this technology. The vast majority of internet users in India have yet to bridge the scary chasm. This is crucial for the future of search as India is expected to have a significant impact on it.
According to a Grand View Research report on the generative AI industry, North America dominated the market with a share of 40.2% in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 34.7%, while Asia Pacific is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR of 35.6%. It is important to point out that China has prohibited access to generative AI media from the West (Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, DALLE 2, ChatGPT), and the US government has put sanctions on China that prohibit them from importing high-end AI chips. These have practically choked off China’s access to the future of artificial intelligence.
Given that you now have a grasp on my perspective that India’s digital natives hold significant influence in shaping the future of search, let’s delve into the specifics of how Indians use the internet. UCWeb, the firm behind UC Browser, has published research on Internet browsing behavior in India. According to research, Indians’ Internet usage patterns include downloading, followed by browsing Facebook, searching, photo viewing, shopping, and accessing news. This is similar to how millennials use the Internet in the West. For Generation Z, the Internet plays a crucial role in their lives as they utilize it for socializing, shopping, entertainment, gathering information, and they spend a significant amount of time on it daily. Digital natives in India are still in their tweens. This Gen Z trend is expected to emerge strongly in India in the next couple of years.
With the growing number of ‘Digital Natives,’ I anticipate that generative AI will take over informational searches that involve collecting and analyzing data relevant to users’ interests. Two innovations in this field have piqued my interest. The first is Stochasticity, a standalone web app that answers your queries with appropriate citations.
The other is Liner AI, a browser plugin that leverages your ChatGPT session to compose an answer on the Google SERP with citations. Such innovations will redefine the way people search, and put the popularity of search advertising in jeopardy.
Search will eventually lose its value for discovering new products or services. Buyers will increasingly discover products via their social networks. When digital native buyers try to figure out a solution to a problem and need advice, they typically look to online communities (social media) to see what others have tried and what worked for them. This behavior can be explained using the AIDA model of the buyer’s journey, and this is where “awareness” fits in. Once the buyer has a basic understanding, he will begin searching for services that can help him in solving the problem he is attempting to address. This stage, in my opinion, will generate enough “interest” to entice the buyer to pursue more exploration. The buyer will very likely watch a slew of YouTube videos before returning to social media to seek opinions from his peers, this time on three to five businesses from his baseline list that he feels have successfully solved problems like his. Research indicates that “perfection-fatigued” millennials and Gen Z are driven by content that feels more authentic. The Advantage+ ad types from Meta are specifically designed for this “desire” stage of the buyer’s journey, which leads to an “action.”
The social discovery will also appeal to the impulse buyer market. Buyers discover a product or service when it is widely discussed or trending on social media. These might be items customers do not even realize they desire at the start of their purchasing journey. In the not-too-distant future, buyers will only search when challenged with a specific problem for which they need a solution.
We’ve reached to a point where marketers need to rethink their strategies. With more than $340 billion in spending power, Gen Z is expected to shake up retail and the future of search.
Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com.
